Fewer people are leaving
In the twelve months to July 2026, 7.05 million people stopped being paid through a UK payroll, against 7.77 million in the twelve months to July 2019. The count comes from the real-time records every UK employer files with HM Revenue and Customs each time it pays its staff, published by the Office for National Statistics on 15 September 2026.
The number of people on payrolls grew between the two years, from 28.9 million in July 2019 to 30.3 million in July 2026, so the rate fell further than the number: in an average month of the year to July 2026, 1.94% of payrolled employees left payrolled work, against 2.25% in the year to July 2019.
Leaving here means no longer being paid through any UK payroll: retiring, studying, caring, moving abroad, becoming self-employed and losing a job all count, together. The tables do not separate them, so a lower figure says that fewer people left paid employment, not why.
Fewer still are joining
6.95 million people started being paid through a UK payroll in the twelve months to July 2026, 1.09 million fewer than the 8.04 million of the twelve months to July 2019. In an average month, 1.91% of payrolled employees were joiners, against 2.33%.
Both flows slowed, and joining slowed more. Joiners fell by 1.09 million a year and leavers by 714,000. In the year to July 2019, 274,000 more people joined payrolls than left them, and the count grew by that much; in the year to July 2026, 101,000 more left than joined, and the count fell by 101,000.
It is not one bad month. In 18 of the 24 months from August 2024 to July 2026, more people left UK payrolls than joined them, and the year to July 2025 looked the same: 7.13 million joined and 7.22 million left, a fall of 95,000.
| Twelve months to July | Joined | Left | Change in the count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 8,017,345 | 7,696,726 | +320,619 |
| 2019 | 8,042,115 | 7,767,786 | +274,329 |
| 2020 | 7,096,693 | 7,674,803 | -578,110 |
| 2021 | 7,268,879 | 6,794,163 | +474,716 |
| 2022 | 8,413,291 | 7,559,545 | +853,746 |
| 2023 | 8,146,165 | 7,610,263 | +535,902 |
| 2024 | 7,656,518 | 7,386,349 | +270,169 |
| 2025 | 7,128,354 | 7,223,043 | -94,689 |
| 2026 | 6,952,412 | 7,053,710 | -101,298 |
What a payroll flow counts
It counts people, not jobs. A person joins in a month in which they are paid through a UK payroll and were not in the month before, and leaves in the reverse case. Someone who moves straight from one employer to another stays in the count and appears in neither flow, so these figures say nothing about how often people change jobs.
A joiner is not a hire and a leaver is not a lay-off. A joiner may be starting a first job, returning from study, caring or illness, arriving from abroad or moving from self-employment; a leaver may be retiring, studying, emigrating, becoming self-employed or losing a job.
The latest months are early estimates. The ONS notes that early estimates of both flows have historically been revised down in the following month, by broadly equal proportions, which moves the two together and leaves the gap between them largely where it is.
- JOINING and LEAVING are movements of PEOPLE, not jobs. Someone joins in a month in which they are paid through a UK payroll and were not in the month before, and leaves in the reverse case. The count is of people, not of jobs, so a person who moves straight from one employer to another stays in it and is in neither flow.
- A JOINER IS NOT A HIRE and a LEAVER IS NOT A LAY-OFF. A joiner may be starting a first job, returning from study, caring or illness, arriving from abroad or moving from self-employment; a leaver may be retiring, studying, emigrating, becoming self-employed or losing a job. The published tables do not say which.
- The count of payrolled employees is a STOCK and the two flows move it: over any twelve months, joiners minus leavers equals the change in the count. The ONS publishes counts; every RATE here is the desk’s arithmetic, the month’s flow divided by the previous month’s count and averaged over the twelve months to July.
So 1.91% against 1.94% does not say that employers are laying people off or hiring fewer staff: it says that in an average month of the year to July 2026 slightly fewer people started being paid through a UK payroll than stopped, where in the year to July 2019 it was 2.33% against 2.25%.
Two flows and one count, from the tax records every UK employer files each time it pays its staff. A reading that forgets what they count says what the source does not.
What these counts do not say
They name no cause. The rise in employers’ National Insurance contributions in April 2025, increases in the minimum wage, artificial intelligence and interest rates have all been offered to explain a weaker UK market, and none of them is measured here.
They say nothing about vacancies, about how many people apply for each post, or about pay. And the published flows are not split by age, industry or region, so they cannot say who joined or who left.
And they forecast nothing. The next release, on 20 October 2026, will revise the latest months; nothing here says where either flow goes next.
