Skip to content
Sign inGet started free
Photo: Filip Chmielecki / Unsplash · Poland

Across economies · 25

Half of Poland’s temporary workers are permanent a year later

In Italy it is still one in five, the share both countries had in 2015, and the lowest reliable figure in the EU.

Does a temporary contract lead to a permanent one? It depends a great deal on the country. In Poland and Italy, ten years ago, about one temporary worker in five was on a permanent contract a year later. Here is how far the two have moved apart, what the figure does and does not count, and what it changes if you are hiring or deciding whether to take a temporary job in either country.

By The Market Desk · · 7 min read · Share

50.7%of people on a temporary contract in Poland were on a permanent one a year later, 2025
21.3%the same share in Italy, the lowest reliable figure in the EU
34.7%the European Union as a whole

Poland is above the EU average, Italy at the bottom

Romania64.6%
Hungary58.3%
Poland50.7%
Portugal44.1%
Netherlands41.3%
Germany36.9%
EU34.7%
France28.2%
Spain23.4%
Italy21.3%
People on a temporary contract one year who are on a permanent contract the next, per cent, three-year average, figure dated 2025. Values Eurostat flags as low reliability are left out. Eurostat, ilc_lvhl36, read 16 October 2026.

Half in Poland, one in five in Italy

In the figure Eurostat dates 2025, 50.7% of people on a temporary contract in Poland were on a permanent contract a year later; in Italy, 21.3%. Across the European Union the share was 34.7%. The figures come from Eurostat’s table of labour transitions, updated on 15 October 2026.

Italy’s figure is the lowest of the 20 member states with a reliable value for 2025. Bulgaria’s, 17.0%, is lower, but Eurostat flags it as low reliability, as it does for five other member states. Romania is highest, at 64.6%, and Poland is above Germany (36.9%), France (28.2%) and Spain (23.4%).

Men and women are close in both countries: in Poland 52.6% of men and 48.8% of women, in Italy 22.4% and 20.1%.

Provenance: Source
People on a temporary contract one year who are on a permanent contract the next, per cent, three-year average, figure dated 2025. The European Union first, then the 26 member states with a value, highest first; Luxembourg has none. Eurostat, ilc_lvhl36.
Member state2025Eurostat flag
European Union34.7%
Romania64.6%
Malta59.0%
Hungary58.3%
Latvia58.3%low reliability
Croatia52.9%
Slovenia52.6%
Ireland52.2%low reliability
Poland50.7%
Czechia47.0%
Slovakia45.5%
Portugal44.1%
Sweden44.0%
Netherlands41.3%
Austria41.2%
Estonia41.2%low reliability
Belgium39.5%
Cyprus38.9%
Germany36.9%
Denmark34.9%low reliability
Finland33.5%
Lithuania31.1%low reliability
France28.2%
Spain23.4%
Greece22.8%
Italy21.3%
Bulgaria17.0%low reliability

What the figure counts

The figure follows people, not contracts. It takes everyone aged 18 and over who was on a temporary contract one year and asks how many were on a permanent contract the next.

It does not say with which employer, or what happened to the rest. Those not counted include people still on temporary contracts, people out of work and people who left the labour force; the source does not separate them.

Each figure is an average over three years, from a survey that follows the same households. That smooths out a single year and keeps the samples usable, but six member states’ 2025 values are still flagged low reliability, and the definition does not say which three pairs of years the figure dated 2025 covers.

Provenance: SourceWhat this counts
  1. THE GROUP: people aged 18 and over who were on a temporary contract in the previous year. Not all workers, and not all temporary contracts signed in a year.
  2. THE CHANGE: the share of them on a permanent contract in the current year. The source does not say whether the permanent contract is with the same employer, and it does not say what happened to the others: some are still on temporary contracts, others are out of work or out of the labour force.
  3. THE AVERAGE: each figure is an average over three years from EU-SILC, a survey that follows the same people from one year to the next. Samples are small, so Eurostat flags some countries as low reliability; those are left out of every comparison here.

So 50.7% does not say that half of Poland’s workers have permanent jobs: it says that of the people on a temporary contract one year, about half were on a permanent contract the next.

One group of people, one change, and one average, and a reading that forgets any of them says what the source does not.

Level ten years ago

In the figure dated 2015 the two countries were level: 18.8% in Poland, 19.8% in Italy. Poland’s share has risen in every year since except 2020, to 50.7%; Italy’s went down to 14.4% in 2019, up to 26.7% in 2021 and back to 21.3%.

The largest single step in Poland came between the figures dated 2022 and 2023, from 32.8% to 47.2%. Because each figure averages three years, a change of that size is spread over several of them.

Over the same ten years the EU share rose from 21.8% to 34.7%. Italy has been below it in every year since 2015; Poland has been above it in every year except 2015, 2016 and 2022.

Provenance: Source
Poland, Italy and the European Union: people on a temporary contract one year who are on a permanent contract the next, per cent, three-year average, by the year Eurostat dates the figure. The EU values for 2015 to 2018 are Eurostat estimates. Eurostat, ilc_lvhl36.
YearPolandItalyEU
201518.8%19.8%21.8%
201622.0%20.1%22.8%
201725.7%16.3%23.6%
201830.0%14.8%24.5%
201934.8%14.4%25.6%
202028.3%19.8%27.2%
202131.5%26.7%29.8%
202232.8%26.0%33.3%
202347.2%25.6%36.5%
202448.4%19.7%36.3%
202550.7%21.3%34.7%

What these figures do not say

They do not say why. Nothing here measures Poland’s 2016 limit on fixed-term contracts, Italy’s 2015 Jobs Act or its 2018 “Dignity Decree”, and no policy is assessed.

They do not say how many people are on temporary contracts in either country, what they are paid or how many hours they work, and they do not say whether a permanent contract came from the same employer.

They do not say what comes next. The figures are three-year averages from a panel survey, and none of this is a forecast.

What this means for you

If you are offered a temporary contract in Italy

In Italy, 21.3% of people on a temporary contract were on a permanent one a year later, the lowest reliable figure in the EU. Treat a temporary offer there as a job in its own right, not as a step that usually leads to a permanent contract within a year: ask at the interview how many people in the role have moved to a permanent contract, and weigh the offer on its length and terms as they stand.

If you are hiring on temporary contracts in Poland

In Poland, 50.7% of people on a temporary contract were on a permanent one a year later, above the EU’s 34.7%. Candidates there have reason to expect that a temporary contract can lead to a permanent one. If yours can, say so in the advert and say when the decision is made; if it cannot, say that too.

How this was counted

Method

  1. One table. Eurostat, ilc_lvhl36 (Labour transitions from temporary to permanent contracts by sex, 3-year average), updated on 15 October 2026, read through Eurostat’s dissemination API on 16 October 2026 at 09:43 (+01:00).
  2. THE MEASURE. As defined in the European Commission’s Social Scoreboard (SWD(2017) 200, 26 April 2017): the percentage of people aged 18 and over whose working status changed from a temporary contract in the previous year to a permanent contract in the current one, as a three-year average. Values are printed as published, to one decimal.
  3. THE SOURCE. EU-SILC, the EU survey of income and living conditions, whose longitudinal part follows the same households over four or more years. Eurostat’s metadata for the table is the general EU-SILC page and does not say which three pairs of years each average covers; this edition dates the figures as Eurostat does and no more precisely.
  4. LIMITS. Luxembourg has no 2025 value. Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, Ireland, Latvia and Lithuania carry Eurostat’s low-reliability flag (Lithuania’s is also provisional); they are in the table but left out of the chart and of every comparison. No Polish or Italian value from 2015 to 2025 carries a flag; the EU values for 2015 to 2018 are Eurostat estimates.
  5. THE DESK’S ARITHMETIC. “Half”: 50.7 out of 100. “One in five”: 21.3, and 18.8 and 19.8 in 2015. “Lowest reliable figure”: the lowest 2025 value among the 20 member states without a flag.
What the data establishes, and what it does not

What the data establishes

  • In the figure Eurostat dates 2025, 50.7% of people on a temporary contract in Poland were on a permanent contract a year later, against 21.3% in Italy and 34.7% across the EU.
  • In 2015 the two countries were level, at 18.8% and 19.8%.
  • Italy’s figure is the lowest of the 20 member states with a reliable value for 2025.
  • Men and women are close in both countries.

What it does not

  • Why: no cause, including Poland’s 2016 limit on fixed-term contracts or Italy’s labour reforms, is measured.
  • Whether the permanent contract came from the same employer.
  • What happened to the others: still temporary, out of work or out of the labour force.
  • How many people are on temporary contracts, what they earn or how long they work.
  • What happens next: nothing here is a forecast.
Primary sources

Primary sources

BabZituna scores every job against your profile on six real dimensions, and publishes what it can and cannot measure. See the live market.

The markets in this piece, live

Earlier editions