Prices rose faster than pay
From September 2025 to September 2026, average hourly earnings on US private payrolls rose by 3.0%, to $37.81. Over the same year, consumer prices, measured by the CPI-U, rose by 3.7%.
So real average hourly earnings, what an hour of that pay buys at constant prices, fell by 0.7%, from $11.32 to $11.24 in 1982 to 1984 dollars. The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the figures on 14 October 2026.
In every month from April to September 2026, real hourly earnings were below their level a year earlier. Before April, the last month for which that was true was April 2023.
| Measure | Sep 2025 | Sep 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hourly earnings | 36.70 | 37.81 | +3.0% |
| Consumer prices (CPI-U) | 324.245 | 336.298 | +3.7% |
| Real hourly earnings | 11.32 | 11.24 | -0.7% |
| Weekly hours | 34.2 | 34.4 | +0.6% |
| Real weekly earnings | 387.10 | 386.76 | -0.1% |
What an average of hourly pay describes
Average hourly earnings are an average over all jobs on private nonfarm payrolls, not any one worker’s raise. The average moves when the mix of high-wage and low-wage jobs changes, even if no one’s pay does.
Real earnings divide that average by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers. They describe pay before tax and without benefits, at 1982 to 1984 prices.
The survey covers private employers, so government workers, farm workers and the self-employed are outside it. The figures for August and September 2026 are preliminary and will be revised.
- AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS: the payroll of all jobs on private nonfarm payrolls divided by their paid hours, before tax, from a monthly survey of employers. It is an average of jobs, not the pay of a typical worker, and it moves when the mix of high-wage and low-wage jobs changes.
- REAL EARNINGS: average hourly earnings divided by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, in 1982 to 1984 dollars. $37.81 divided by a price index of 336.298 is $11.24.
- PRELIMINARY: the figures for August and September 2026 are revised as more employers report.
So real hourly earnings 0.7% lower do not say that any worker took a pay cut: average hourly pay rose by 3.0%. They say that, on average, an hour of private-sector pay bought 0.7% less in September 2026 than a year earlier.
One average, one price index and two preliminary months, and a reading that forgets any of them says what the source does not.
Per hour and per week
Weekly pay fell less: real average weekly earnings were 0.1% lower, at $386.76 against $387.10. The average workweek rose from 34.2 to 34.4 hours, an increase of 0.6%, which offset most of the fall per hour.
In September alone, real hourly earnings fell by 0.5%, as hourly pay rose by 0.1% and prices by 0.6%. A single month can be revised; the year is the finding.
Of the Septembers from 2019 to 2026, real hourly earnings were highest in 2020, at $11.35, and lowest in 2019, at $10.98. September 2026, at $11.24, is below 2025 and above 2024, at $11.23.
| September | Real hourly | Hourly | CPI-U | Weekly hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 10.98 | 28.16 | 256.430 | 34.4 |
| 2020 | 11.35 | 29.51 | 259.997 | 34.8 |
| 2021 | 11.31 | 30.98 | 273.910 | 34.8 |
| 2022 | 10.99 | 32.57 | 296.349 | 34.6 |
| 2023 | 11.07 | 34.01 | 307.276 | 34.4 |
| 2024 | 11.23 | 35.34 | 314.732 | 34.3 |
| 2025 | 11.32 | 36.70 | 324.245 | 34.2 |
| 2026 | 11.24 | 37.81 | 336.298 | 34.4 |
What these figures do not say
They do not say why prices rose faster than pay. Nothing here measures tariffs, energy prices, interest rates or immigration, and no policy is assessed.
They do not say that any worker’s pay fell, or that households are worse off: they describe hourly pay before tax, and say nothing about benefits, other income, any industry or any state.
They compare the United States only with itself, and none of this is a forecast.
